College football playoff ranking predictions
November 10, 2021
As the first College Football Playoff Committee ranking came out last week, they clearly indicated how much of an impact head-to-head matchups have in their raning.
Oregon was ranked over Ohio State, and Wisconsin above Iowa. Wisconsin over Iowa was interesting case because Wisconsin’s record was 5-3 and Iowa’s was 6-2. Iowa was 19 and 16 in the AP and AFCA poll respectively while Wisconsin was still unranked.
However, the CFP committee looks at the head-to-head matchup if two teams are close and give credit to the winner.
However, what if another team did well while another did not do so well in that week? For example, Michigan State lost against Purdue while Indiana won against Indiana convincingly? Will Michigan State be over Michigan?
My guess is yes because it was a road game for Michigan State and Purdue is likely to be in the top 25 after knocking out Iowa a few weeks ago and beating Michigan State last week (that is a two top 5 wins this season).
This is why I put Cincinnati as No. 5, Michigan State as No. 6, and Michigan as No. 7. If Michigan State and Michigan did not play each other, I would have put Michigan State No. 8 after Oklahoma.
I am curious how much Texas A&M will jump in the ranking. They beat No. 13 Auburn last week, so I can see them climbing up as high as No. 9, but I will not be surprised if they will be at No. 11. NC State will climb up and they will be No. 15, and I expect the biggest game of the season for both NC State and Wake Forest is this week.
In the meantime, Wisconsin is climbing up the ranking and I expect them to be settled around No. 17. I have seen some articles predicting them to be in the top 13, but I do not think Wisconsin can climb up that high.
However, if they win the remaining three games, top 10 is not impossible.
I think this week may be the week for UTSA getting finally ranked as one of the few undefeated teams left. UTSA is currently ranked 15th and 16th in AP and AFCA poll respectively, but they were not even ranked in the first CFP ranking.
It is disappointing for the UTSA players, but I think that is because the CFP committee looks at the strength of schedule. However, a 9-0 record is still impressive, and I believe that they will get the credit this time to be top 25.
Overall, the second CFP ranking will be filled with the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Big Ten Conference as I expect five SEC teams and seven Big Ten teams in top 25.
Here are my predictions for the next CFP poll, followed by the team’s current CFP ranking, AP ranking and AFCA ranking.
- Georgia(9-0)– 1, 1, and 1
- Alabama(8-1)– 2, 2, and 2
- Oregon–(8-1) 4, 5, and 6
- Ohio State(8-1)– 5, 6, and 5
- Cincinnati(9-0)– 6, 2, and 3
- Michigan State(8-1)– 3, 8, and 9
- Michigan(8-1)– 7, 9, and 8
- Oklahoma(9-0)– 8, 4, and 4
- 9. Notre Dame(8-1)– 10, 7, and 7
- 10. Oklahoma State(8-1)– 11, 10, and 10
- 11. Texas A&M (7-2) – 14, 11, and 11
- BYU(8-2)– 15, 14, and 15
- Ole Miss(7-2)– 16, 12, and 12
- Wake Forest(8-1)– 9, 13, and 13
- NC State(7-2)– 19, 21, and 19
- Baylor(7-2)– 12, 18, and 18
- Wisconsin(6-3) – 21, 20, and 24
- Iowa(7-2) – 22, 19, and 14
- Auburn(6-3) – 13, 16, and 20
- Pittsburgh(7-2)– 25, 25, and 22
- Purdue(6-3)– Unranked, unranked, and unranked
- 22. Arkansas(6-3) – Unranked, unranked, and unranked
- 23. San Diego State(8-1)– 24, unranked, and unranked
- Penn State (6-3) – unranked, 23, and 23
- UTSA (9-0) – Unranked, 15, and 16